Soak City Announcement on

DA20Pilot said:

CP Maverick said:

DA20Pilot said:

Another somewhat related example is Cedar Fair's purchase of Paramount Parks. It was too much at once and decimated the share price for a good while.

You can't possibly believe the closing of Geauga Lake didn't have a significant impact on the number of Cleveland-native unit-holders. It was the following week that the price plummeted, and had nothing to do with the Paramount purchase.

I wasn't making any comment whatsoever about the closing of GL. GL wasn't even in my consciousness when I wrote the post. I was merely trying to briefly illustrate in simple terms, in response to a post, why a company's good financial health does not give them carte blanche to spend without constraint.

But, if you read analyst research, CFs annual reports, and their financial statements it is widely understood that the massive amount of debt CF took on to purchase Paramount Parks had a major effect on CFs stock for years, and also took a lot of Kinzel's luster. Any effect of GLs closing upon the stock was negligible in comparison.

Cedar Fair paid $145 million for Geauga Lake.
They added 1.24 BILLION in debt to the balance sheet to acquire Paramount Parks.

And, many times investors applaud closing of unprofitable or revenue-cannibalizing ventures by bidding up the price of a stock, despite a short-term write-down.

I know we are on a severe tangent at this point, but the Paramount Parks purchase was done in the spring of 2006, and GL was closed in the fall of 2007. It was after the GL closure that the unit price dropped. Before that, it was fairly stable. ($2 drop after PP purchase/ $4 rebound, and $8 drop after GL closure/$3 rebound.)

You have to remember that there were a significant number of unit holders that were from the Cleveland area. Many people were upset at the way GL was handled, and selling FUN units was a way to break ties with the company. This wasn't Wall Street starring Michael Douglas type of stock trading.

Either way, this has distracted from the conversation at hand. I just don't want people to think that the Paramount purchase is a good example of anything the company is doing today.

The Company looks at the parks on a regional level. Improvements for CP/SC and the hotels come from an examination of all the revenue from the entire development. They keep separate balance sheets at the end of the day, but ultimately improvements at one will affect all the others.

1. I have never ever seen or heard of any kind of special Soak City Parking permit. Never.

2. Even if they tried to execute your permit idea, what's to stop Platinum passholders from geting a SC parking permit and then using the resort gate anyways?

CP Maverick, Cedar Fair's stock was already down 10% year-to-date when GL's closure was announced, in large part because of the Paramount Parks purchase the year before.

Did GL's closure contribute to a further short term decline, quite possibly. But if so it was a drop in the bucket compared to the debt burden from the PP acquisition.

Also, don't confuse correlation with cause and effect.

And, it's hard to make a conclusive case that the continued decline in calendar year 07 was related to GL or a continuation of the downtrend already in motion. However, the period of poor performance over the next 3 or 4 years was a result of the PP debt. It caused them to suspend the dividend. It caused them to put the chain up for sale at what unit holders considered a fire sale price such that they blocked the sale.

These are the primary reasons for the poor unit price performance.

While I'm sure some local folks sold stock as a result of their resentment about GL, most investors (especially institutional investors who hold the majority of FUN shares) don't buy and sell for emotional reasons. They buy and sell based on expected returns.

I'm a former stockbroker, I know a bit about this stuff.

I'm happy to let the thread get back on topic, but if some of my facts are called into question, I'm inclined to reply if I'm not too busy, and if the other party does not fall into the category of hopelessly clueless in my opinion.

So, you can interpret the presence of this post as evidence that I don't perceive you to fall within that classification :)

You CAN park anywhere. I've driven passed the gaurd booths at the Marina and Breakers several times. I've slowed down to see if they'll get up, and when they don't, I keep going. Now, whether or not people like me get caught by CP police or parking enforcement is a different question. So far, I've not. I've since made myself paranoid and park in the SC lot most of the time or up front.
It would be a terrible idea to restrict that lot to SC guests only (and to restrict that gate to resort guests only). What happens if you are at SC for a few hours and decide to go into the park? Or vice versa.

You guys are making an awful lot of assumptions without a lot of facts. Yes, Carowinds is undersized for its market, but the market area is only around 2.5 million people. Carowinds is a local park that works within that market. That is about the size of the Cleveland metro area, maybe a little smaller. CP has the Cleveland metro area plus Detroit and a number of smaller areas. CP, with it being a super regional destination park, will always be the cash cow and has opportunity for growth as a vacation destination in the future. That said, Soak City and CP are separate parks, as others have said. Just guessing, but I would bet cap ex is separated. I see no reason that Soak City and CP can't have major projects in one year.

I have never been asked at the toll booth where I plan to park and I decide which lot to use based on my plans for the day. The Breakers lot and Lighthouse Point and Camper Village should be for people who are staying there not regular park guests and the marina lot should be just for boat owners and their guests but to restrict the Soak City lot wouldn't really accomplish anything. As has been pointed out limiting the resort entrance to just those staying on property also makes no sense because many platinum pass holders, me included, split the day between the two parks. I don't always go to one or the other I go to both in one day. I'm not going to move my car as I go back and forth.

I had thought the reasoning behind the falling of the stock price in '08 had more to do with the banks collapsing and them redefining their lending practices to save their asses. With Cedar Fair purchasing Paramounts parks at an amount way over what they should have payed that put them in a funk where they maxed their credit out under new guidelines on lending. I remember the stock market collapsing across the board. Not just in one sector. With parks generating income off of new attractions being maxed out on credit is not the best situation to be in. Thus the drop. Thankfully the holders stayed put.

For years, FUN had been a stock that, somewhat rarely, had been experiencing solid growth for years AND paid a healthy dividend. Growth and income together. And a relatively low debt burden.
After the Paramount acquisition, it was obvious that the rapid growth was over, at least for a good while, in large part because of the debt burden, but also a number of other smaller factors. The strong expectations that the growth party was over was the main reason for the years of stagnation. The 2009 broad market bottoming due to macroeconomic conditions had an effect, but was not the primary cause. FUN has a beta well below 1, which means it tends to rise and fall less than the broader market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

But I agree with Pete, both projects could very well happen.

Pete said:

Yes, Carowinds is undersized for its market, but the market area is only around 2.5 million people. Carowinds is a local park that works within that market. That is about the size of the Cleveland metro area, maybe a little smaller. CP has the Cleveland metro area plus Detroit and a number of smaller areas.

You've got me scratching my head there. Greenville/Spartanburg, Columbia, and High Point/Greensboro/Winston-Salem, are all with within 1 hour to 1 hour 45 minutes of Carowinds and each boast give or take 1 million people in their metro areas. Plus all the smaller areas in between and around. I'd conservatively put the Carowinds market at 7 million.

I would also like to know the reason people seem to be against an RMC Mean Streak and Soak City expansion in the same year?

Is it an attempt to be "realistic" and to temper expectations? I just don't get it. I'm not gonna lie, I'm totally hoping for an RMC. But that's only because I have substantial evidence to support it. If I thought it was ridiculous, I WOULD lower expectations. But the signs we've received point to Soak City and Mean Streak? Why do people not want the most innovative company out there. to make a Cedar Fair debut, especially given the obvious signs pointing to it?

Also, still waiting for the evidence pointing anywhere besides Soak City and RMC Mean Streak. All I've seen so far is guesses based on budgets and markets. No solid information from the park itself or other sources...

Fat Man Tarkey said:

I would also like to know the reason people seem to be against an RMC Mean Streak and Soak City expansion in the same year?

I don't think people are against both projects happening. Rather that they're suggesting Cedar Fair might spread such projects out over several years.

It's hard to tell. Its not like CP hasn't done something like that before. People are using earnings (which they can only make educated guesses on), the "Its not your turn" argument, and the lack of RMC involvement in Cedar Fairs past. Then everything from the park & other sources gives hard evidence for both things.

Its just confusing to me I guess.

noggin said:

Fat Man Tarkey said:

I would also like to know the reason people seem to be against an RMC Mean Streak and Soak City expansion in the same year?

I don't think people are against both projects happening. Rather that they're suggesting Cedar Fair might spread such projects out over several years.

But there are plenty of other projects for other years. A dark ride, a water ride, a flying coaster, a wooden coaster, a family coaster to round out the coaster collection, Sandcastle Suites renovation, a revamped Kiddy Kingdom, Top Thirll Dragster's replacement ;). I can think of many things Cedar Point may possibly add over the years to come. And what better way to market 2017 than having two huge additions for two parks. I'm sure you'd get more destination travelers wanting to do both parks. It can only help their resort portfolio for next season.

XS NightClub said:

If we see a redo of this entrance, I'd imagine a single Soak City entrance, with no easy access to Cedar Point from the parking lot. This of course would accompany a redesigned entrance for Resort Guests only.

This would alleviate the problem of Soak City lot overflowing into Lighthouse Point and Sandcastle where the park has to position staff to prevent non-guests from parking there.

First, like everyone else here, I have never encountered an issue preventing me from parking in the SC, aside from when they have held concerts back there. Though it would make sense that they'd enforce some sort of control when the resorts and park are at their busiest.

Second, what you're suggesting would needlessly limit their flexibility. Right now, a small amount of non-resort guests use the SC lot and resort entrance, which spreads out crowds and keeps things moving.

In short, I think you're trying to solve a problem that just doesn't exist.

Fat Man Tarkey said:

I would also like to know the reason people seem to be against an RMC Mean Streak and Soak City expansion in the same year?

Who here is against it? Suggesting that both in one year is unrealistic doesn't mean someone is against it, it just means they're being pragmatic.

But the signs we've received point to Soak City and Mean Streak? Why do people not want the most innovative company out there. to make a Cedar Fair debut, especially given the obvious signs pointing to it?

Signs may point to those areas, but not necessarily in the same year. Given the utter lack of upkeep, it was clear for years that Space Spiral and DT were going away. But it didn't happen as soon as the signs began appearing.

CPGuru said:
But there are plenty of other projects for other years. A dark ride, a water ride, a flying coaster, a wooden coaster, a family coaster to round out the coaster collection, Sandcastle Suites renovation, a revamped Kiddy Kingdom, Top Thirll Dragster's replacement...

That's not at all how cap ex works. The parks have to justify what they spend, and for CP they typically spend around $30 million or less, including marquee attractions and minor stuff around the park.

What DJ said. No one's against the idea of multiple key additions in one year. Some people are looking at the assorted facts, rumors and notions and saying "Yes! Totally!", others are saying "Mmm, maybe" is all.

Just a thought. I don't want to beat a practically dead horse. However, it's always something in the back of my mind:

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2016/08/whats_happening_at..._lake.html

It's only a matter of time before Wildwater Kingdom closes for good. I can't imagine Cedar Fair wants to stay in either of those cities. Soak city expansion, Meijer land sale of two main parcels in Geauga County. Maybe they might leave Aurora County as well.

There's enough room in the Go Kart area to clear out the proslide & the slide complex. Just some food for thought

We've been discussing that over at CoasterBuzz, and it's been in the back of my mind too. So far I haven't heard anything beyond speculation about closing WWK and moving slides to SC, but it wouldn't surprise me either. If that happens though, I just hope they announce it before WWK's season ends so we can go one last time.

If you enjoy Wild Water Kingdom, why not just go because it's fun? I don't get the need for closing announcements so people can go one last time. If it's worthwhile, people would go spend their money, and it probably wouldn't be on the chopping block.

For example: The weekend after Labor Day is always "Final Fling Weekend" at SeaBreeze. Even though it's also the first weekend of the NFL season, my son and I usually spend Saturday & Sunday there. We go because we enjoy the park.

I really enjoy WWK in Aurora and go about 5 times a season as it's the closest park to me. However, if it stays open it is really lacking in the slide department. I hope that with selling some land to Meijer maybe that will justify some cap-ex. A 6 lane mat racer would be wonderful here. If you go on a weekend slides can easily be a 30+ min wait. It would be a shame to lose this park too, my hopes are that if CF is done with it... they choose to sell rather then close.

That said, a few things I'm hoping to see with a Soak City expansion:

1. Re-theme, the cold 80's-90's concrete is just uninviting and to me and completely goes against what Ouimet seems to be trying to do with the latest Point additions. I would love to see a Lake Erie Islands nautical there, maybe even a rename like Carolina Harbor at Carowinds. "Lake Erie Shores waterpark" or something of that nature. Embrace the local culture and area!
2. Master Blaster water coaster!
3. Funnel Slide of some sort as these are fun and very impressive.
4. Slide complex with trap door slides. These scare the crap out of me!

These aren't predictions just some things I would like to see! :) Really looking forward to the 18th as about 5 CF parks are announcing their 2017 plans!